PTA futures rose sharply last week, the main 1801 contract yesterday exceeded 5,500 yuan / ton integer off, and 2.79% led the domestic commodity futures market. Analysts said that in the near term, PTA has been rising continuously due to the cost side and capital side. However, with the Saudi state of affairs subsided, the oil price continued to rise weakly, and the PTA start-up this week is expected to increase substantially. The supply and demand pattern should be further relaxed and vigilant Price fall risk.

Cost support period price center of gravity

"By the rising oil prices and costs PX, PTA futures center price recently moved up." Huatai Futures Research Institute of Energy and Chemical PY Sun Hongyuan Park, said the upstream PX center of gravity continue to move up, last Friday Asia CFR disk reported 899 US dollars / ton Up 17 US dollars), processing fee 700 US dollars / ton. PX12 monthly report 897 US dollars / ton, January 904 US dollars / ton. Domestic PTA individual units began to gradually return, PX is expected to go library.

Sun Hongyuan further said that in November began the gradual return of PTA old device, but the polyester low inventory support for the load is still short-term to the library. However, the contract for the futures 1801, the weaving seasonally weakened terminals, PTA old and new devices November-December put into operation under pressure, there is limited room for price increases.

Specifically, the device, last week PTA overall start-up load remained at around 73%, mainly related to Tianjin Petrochemical, Oriental Petrochemical Park, Pengon Petrochemical delayed driving; this week concerned Pengbei restart, feed production Xiangliang Petrochemical Situation, another Bin Hua Bin 700,000 tons of test conditions and so on. Polyester device changes little, unchanged filament, bottle load slightly adjusted to last Friday polyester load at 92.1%, at a high level.

Downstream, last week, Textiles chasing raw materials, and the rate of close, so more cash flow to maintain, still maintain a good profitability. Polyester production and marketing heavy volume into the light, the overall good, 5 days on weekdays production and sales of polyester average 120% -130%. Inventory continued to decline, Jiangsu and Zhejiang Polyester POY, FDY, DTY inventories were 1.5 days, 4.5 days, 11.4 days, due to more open some factories, the actual factory inventory lower, especially POY.

Watch out for the downside risk

Looking ahead, Founder Futures Futures Energy and Chemical Group researcher Liang Jiakun said that Saudi Arabia's domestic oil prices tightened strong support for the current international crude oil prices rose to a new high since July 2015, but as the situation eased, the crude oil prices continue to rise weak.

"Supply, the PTA load last week was about 70%, Xianglu Petrochemical 4.5 million tons / year plant test recently commissioning, load 50% operation.In addition, Peng Wei Petrochemical 900,000 tons, 700,000 tons of Oriental Petrochemical and Tianjin Petrochemical 34 Tons of tons of plant plans to restart, PTA load or will rise sharply. Tong Kun Jiaxing Petrochemical Phase II 2.2 million tons plant put into operation in December postponed downstream demand, polyester load remained at about 89%. On the whole, crude oil rally Suspended, PTA has a substantial increase in supply expectations, the short term, PTA fall risk is greater. "Liang Jiakun said.

CITIC Futures analyst believes that short-term supply and demand in the pattern has not completely turn the vacant, PTA prices are still subject to oil prices, but the need to guard against the old device to restart the bearish mood. In the medium and long term, the pattern of PTA supply and demand is slowly adjusting. The pattern of supply and demand may enter into easing while the price may go up or be under pressure.